Chairman's note: As last week, we are continuing to test new model in the Winner market. Our tools section has all the picks and the approach is different than before. We'll skip the previews this time and focus on this new approach.
Last week's results
Last week showed us once again that the new model is ready to be used. It predicted 8 out of top 10 players and landed a solid winner with about 100% profit (depending on the positions bettor managed to sell). As a chairman I mainly just held the card although I sold some Olesen at 5/1 and some Homa at 2/1. Still a solid 103% profit for the week.
In the PGA Tour Camillo bit us again. Some (like me) managed to sell Noren at a good price and landed +/- 0 week from the one that was close to being a great week. After deeper analysis this competition further developed our approach on adjusting the model on a weekly basis and putting the emphasis in right stats for every week.
We are now collecting a new database from 2015 onwards that will give us a solid base for predicting the models weights in the future.
This weeks analysis - DPWT
For DPWT this week presents a new kind of challenge for the new model. It features a stellar field with players having their off-seasons. The desert atmosphere seems to reward the best players from statistical viewpoint and thus our selections are top heavy and feat over 50% of the market.
This means that the upside is limited but so is the downside. We weighted the model based on true strokes gained and players ability to manage a good round even on worse than optimal days. These correlated really well in the history.
This weeks analysis - PGA
In the PGA Tour the story is totally different. Players are fighting for their tour cards and playing rights for the next season.
The field is sub average, but it has a several really solid players who come with stat lines that beat the average PGA tour player with around 1 shot per round (during their last 40 rounds). This seems to be a main stat when predicting market moves.
Then the trends do matter as well, but this week it seems that there'll be no "underdog" winner. So we'll have a larger group of players but they are all from the top 50 of the field when looking at their model average true strokes gained.
Betting card for the week
Like last week I want emphasize that we are not investing more that 20% of our bankroll on the weekly basis and we are balancing the card during the tournament. Thus we'll focus on the Winner market which is pretty liquid.
For the sake of simplicity we'll share the picks now only on Tools (with the column "PICK" marked as a "W"). This is testing phase and we'll also publish a new way to track results in the off-season. There's a huge importance to balance the card during competition and thus it's hard to share exact betting sizes.
It might be a good idea to play top half of the selections in the top10 (or top20 in the PGA) market this week, but we do not have a model for that.
Note 1: that we are taking the market price at the moment for the picks. This will change in the future, but for now it seems to generate solid profits on a weekly basis. Our estimates land to 20-30% profit per week for 12 month period.
Note 2: As an individual bettor you can easily balance the risk with in-play lay bets (shorting) with f.e. example 5-10x the bet size. So for example you could sell a 100/1 for a 20/1 or 10/1 with 100 or 200€ or whatever your currency is.
We are also developing a GPT (OpenAI's new service/product) for searching for players. We'll keep our members posted on this. It will provide detailed instructions on making the bets and ruling the market of golf trading in the future.