BMW Championships 2023
Introduction
The BMW Championship 2023 is set to be a thrilling event, with the world's top golfers battling it out on a challenging course. The tournament, which is part of the FedExCup Playoffs, will test the players' skills and strategies to the fullest. With narrow fairways, deep bunkers, and tricky greens, the course is a true test of golfing prowess.
Course Overview
The North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club is known for its challenging layout. Here are some key features:
- Narrow Fairways: The fairways are only 26 yards wide and are lined with trees, making accuracy off the tee crucial.
- Deep Bunkers: The fairway bunkers are cavernous and can be difficult to escape from.
- Tough Rough: The rough is 4-6 inches deep, and players will struggle to hit the green from it. In fact, the GIR (Greens in Regulation) percentage from the rough is just 41%.
- Tricky Greens: The greens are like tabletops, with subtle slopes and fast speeds.
- Challenging Par 4s: Not a single par 4 played under par in 2020, with an average score of 4.13.
For an amazing course preview - see Betsperts article here.
Weather Conditions
The course has received a lot of rain earlier this week, making the rough even more challenging. The creeks on the course have also been bolstered by the rainwater, adding another layer of difficulty. Players will need to be accurate off the tee to avoid the rough and the water hazards.
Betting card and thoughts
After successful week in shorting the top 2%, we go again on a short side based on macro trends from this competition. Trend showed a solid market share growth for players outside the 2% winning probability after 2 rounds in comparable setups (hard course, lots of variance in scoring and high level field quality).
Thus, we will be shorting (lay bets) top 10 players based on odds and cashing out before the start of R3 (most likely). This makes almost 60% of the whole market which means that if another 40 players manage to even up the situation in first few rounds, we'll end up in profit. The analysis showed that this happens more often than not.
Here is the card and preview of data for the week is in the Tools section. Betting only 5 top10s and 10 top20s going forward. These players will be qualified for bets based on their model rank, positive other ranks and under 2 missed cuts on their last 5 starts. The odds mentioned are the ones that market gave about 4 hours before the start (no time to hunt this time).
2%+ players (about 4 hours before the start):
Rory McIlroy 9
Scottie Scheffler 9.2
Jon Rahm 11.5
Patrick Cantlay 14
Viktor Hovland 21
Xander Schauffele 23
Tommy Fleetwood 32
Collin Morikawa 32
Tyrrell Hatton 34
Max Homa 38
See the strategic aspect of these selections above. The selected strategy is based on history and trends and our research. All bets placed on 120 unit liability structure, but the main idea is to cashout in profit before weekend.
Tommy Fleetwood 3.2
Brian Harman 5.8
Rory McIlroy 1.79
Scottie Scheffler 1.73
Patrick Cantlay 2.12
Aiming for 5 unit profit (payout-stake).
Viktor Hovland, 1.57
Xander Schauffele, 1.63
Collin Morikawa, 1.82
Tyrrell Hatton, 1.79
Max Homa, 1.87
Rickie Fowler, 2.06
Russell Henley, 2.1
Tom Kim, 2.32
Lucas Glover, 3.1
Byeong Hun An, 2.28
1 unit level bets for these because of new field size and high variance course. Jon Rahm skipped because we do not find value betting under 1.5 odds pre-tournament.
Winner and top bets are placed in Betfair Exchange. Sign up here.
For past few weeks we've been betting with simple setups. As reasoned then, last week was breakeven or profitable in every betting type. 2R strategy yielded 17.3% profit (and for the risk loving ones, holding the card for the whole tournament yielded 100% profit) and top20 yielded 27% of profit while top10 was about the same amount in loss (making top plays breakeven).
Good luck for the week!
