Pro-Am season continues in PGA Tour this week and the field has really taken a hit for worse. Still there's a huge amount of talent in the world's best tour and the views are spectacular this week. Pebble Beach is a heaven on earth for the golfer if money is not a problem - and it's not when you're playing in PGA Tour.
As I wrote last week, there's more than enough previews in Internet and we'll change the approach closer to our identity which is data based & quantitive. We highly recommend to read previews from Vincerix, Betsperts and some big bookmakers (Betfair and Sportinglife (powered by BetFred) if that's your cup of tea. These previews bring all the needed aspects for picking players and our approach is more quantified.
3 different course for the first three days and then final day at the Pebble. Weather will be quite cold and some winds are expected. This is pretty usual weather this time of the year so models will not be modified.
The betting card & reasoning
The focus is once again in the strategic bets but some top & h2h plays were added to the card since there's a huge discrepancy in the level of the players.
Then there's the injury of Matt Fitzpatrick that we watched closely and ended up dropping him from the card and opening some shorts. Neck injuries are normally hard for golfers and his comments yesterday got us feeling like this could be a WD week for him.
“Hopefully it’s going to die down a bit more. I can still play but I’ve not got full speed. I’ve had a neck injury on and off through the years. It’s stiff going down my right side. Going through to ball is more difficult than normal.” Matt Fitzpatrick
The main play will be betting all players who have over 2% of the winners market. Some plays were added too soon so those odds have gotten higher but some got lower as well. It seems that the best time to take top5 players is right before the start, mid-range depending on the tipsters / reports from the course and low-range (100+ odds) as early as the market settles to less than 10% of overturn. More analysis on these will follow when the dataset gets bigger.
Some might say that Fitzy should be kept on the card but as an avid golfer I tend to disagree on playing through the injury when priced in the top 5. So that was cut from the example betting sheet. In addition some bold plays were made in the H2H market and positions market regarding the mispricing of the injured player.
Here's the betting card as a whole (scroll around to find all - strategic bets are in the last rows).
Hopefully we get the same excitement level that Jordan gave us last year with this shot:
Have a great week and remember to close your strategic bets before R4 - that saved the example portfolio almost 100 units last week when Finau and Rahm faded early. Will start to bring updates on the decisions to a featured posts sooner than later!
PS. Some bets were made to DP and AT this week but those were based on the stats more than anything so we ended up not sharing those.