John Deere Classic 2023
Midjourney's take on stylish American gentleman on Illinois golf course.

John Deere Classic 2023

Betting preview of John Deere Classic 2023, the PGA Tour event that brings the spotlight to rural Illinois. This article explores the unique dynamics of the tournament, strategies for betting and notes on the course.


It's the real golf enthusiasts' week as we take a journey to the heartland of Illinois. This long-lasting event on the PGA Tour calendar, brings the spotlight to the rural Midwest.

The Course: Beyond its Scenic Appeal

Situated amid rolling hills and lush expanses, TPC Deere Run made its debut on the PGA Tour in the summer of 2000. Aside from a pause in 2020 due to the pandemic, it has consistently been a gracious host.

The tranquil beauty of this parkland course conceals its competitive spirit. The bunker overhaul following the 2021 edition improved the structure and drainage, enhancing its tactical appeal. Although water bodies are less intimidating, the looming trees stand ready to penalize any off-target shot. The John Deere Classic is more than just a scenic venue; it's a tactical battlefield demanding precision and control.

TPC Deere Run is more about strategy and skill than simply powerful drives. While long drives are achievable, they're not necessarily the key to victory. Here's a breakdown:

  • Driving Accuracy and GIR combo: The course ranks among the top-10 easiest in this aspect.
  • Average Approach Distance: A modest 162 yards.
  • Rough Proximity: Stray from the fairway, and you're 17.2 feet further from the target – one of the most punishing roughs on Tour.
  • Birdie or Better Percentage: A modest 12.4% from the rough, leaping to a healthy 24.5% from the fairway.
  • Putting: It's the second-easiest course to gain strokes putting on Tour. The average winning 72-hole total is an impressive 264.1.

Some background about this year's tournament

Entering its 23rd year at TPC Deere Run, the John Deere Classic is an exhibition of skill, precision, and strategic gameplay. With the highest winning 72-hole total in tournament history sitting at a mere 268, it is historically a haven for birdies. Despite many top players gearing up for The Open Championship, this week's entry list still promises thrilling golf action.

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Betting card and thoughts

After weeks of quality fields and big competitions, it's time to dive deeper into the PGA Tour member list to find 157 players this week.

There's still a lot of talent and the mid range offers some players in a great form. We are going into the week with a wide betting card that will mainly feature in-play picks that will fill if and when the market fluctuates.

Here is the card and preview of data for the week is in the Tools section.

*Ludvig Aberg - 40
*Emiliano Grillo - 40
*Adam Hadwin - 44
*Adam Schenk - 44
*Taylor Moore - 48
*Patrick Rodgers - 65
*Sepp Straka - 75
*Michael Kim - 90
Stephan Jaeger - 40
Alex Smalley - 48

Risking 20 units for potential payout of around 100 units. 5x is not the normal target for profit, but this week is far from normal.

Note that we play with 300 unit bankroll and risk around 33% of it every week. Our lowest bet will always be 0.5 unit bet.
*means a in-play / not filled bet.
Top 10s:
*Denny Mccarthy - 3.65
*Ludvig Aberg - 5
*Emiliano Grillo - 5.5
*Adam Hadwin - 5.5
*Adam Schenk - 5.5
*Stephan Jaeger - 4.8
*Sepp Straka - 6.8
*Michael Kim - 9
*Callum Tarren - 10
Russell Henley - 3.25
Taylor Moore - 5.5

2 units for under 4/1 and 1 unit to all others. These have been performing quite well lately.
Top 20s (live and floating):
Denny Mccarthy - 2.3 - 2u
Ludvig Aberg - 3.1 -1,5u
Emiliano Grillo - 3.2 -1,5u
Adam Hadwin - 3.2 -1,5u
Adam Schenk - 3.2 -1,5u
Chris Kirk - 3 -1,5u
Stephan Jaeger - 3 -1,5u
Taylor Moore - 3.2 -1,5u
Eric Cole - 3.6 -1,5u
Alex Smalley - 3.35 -1,5u
Seamus Power - 3.6 -1,5u
Sepp Straka - 4 -1u
Chez Reavie - 4.9 -1u
Mark Hubbard - 4.3 -1u
Doug Ghim - 4 -1u
Dylan Wu - 4.5 -1u
Michael Kim - 4.5 -1u
Callum Tarren - 5.2 -1u

Winner and top bets are placed in Betfair Exchange. Sign up here.

Good luck for the week!

Let's harvest!