The 151st Open
Gents are ready for the Open.

The 151st Open

The Open 2023 is played in The Royal Liverpool. Here's our preview, stats analysis and betting picks.

The 151st Open brings together 49 of the top 50 players in the world, in addition to an intriguing assortment of players who have secured their spots through qualifiers.

A Brief History of The Open and Royal Liverpool

The open championship, organised by the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St Andrews (R&A), is the sole major tournament held outside the United States.

First held in 1860 as a three-round event on the 12-hole links course at Prestwick Golf Club, The Open has since been hosted by many world-renowned links courses throughout the British Isles.

After a nine-year hiatus, the competition returns to Royal Liverpool this year. Past victors from this century include Tiger Woods in 2006 and Rory McIlroy in 2014. Both victories were especially emotional, with Woods' major win at Liverpool being his first after his father's passing and McIlroy's triumph validating a wager his father and friends had placed 10 years prior on his major victory (at 500-to-1 odds).

Royal Liverpool (Hoylake) as a Competitive Course

More commonly known by the name Hoylake, this course has, in past Opens, thrust the finest competitors into the limelight. Claret Jug has been lifted here, in addition to Woods and McIlroy, by the likes of Bobby Jones, Walter Hagen and Peter Thomson.

The course is presently played as a par 71, and measures in at 7,383 yards. Inaugurated in 1869, it is the second oldest links course in England. It was largely constructed on an old racecourse, rendering it particularly susceptible to wind, but it also possesses handsome traditional dunes and deep bunkers characteristic of links courses.

A number of alterations have been made to the course ahead of this year's Open, as is now customary. The course has been lengthened, its order has been changed and an entirely new hole has been introduced. Hole 17 is expected to play a crucial role in the competition, its relatively short length (around 120 meters for a par 3) challenging competitors with deep bunkers and a "infinity" green with dangers lurking all around the green.

For a more in-depth look at the course, you may view the splendid video below.

Interesting Statistics and Data

No clear "winning formula" can be discerned from the victors of the past 10 years, although putting has always held a heightened importance in The Open. Of interest in this century's winners' (Woods and McIlroy) stats is that their victories came about through very different strategies. Woods won as the most accurate off the tee (hitting driver only once), while Rory secured his victory through long drives and exceptional wedge play.

The Open's history might not get enough consideration in the model's rankings (found here), so keep an especially keen eye on the "Course History" column when making your own picks this week. History has shown that links and Open experience play a crucial role, particularly when searching for the winner.

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Betting card and thoughts

Huge amount of matched bets this week. The Open is really popular in Europe and the pricing is relatively stable at this point.

Since the course offers a variability in the scoring, it should also offer quite good spots for filling the in-play odds during first (or even second) round.

Our card is relatively limited in the winners market and then has lot of selections in top10 and top20 markets. In addition to this some special bets are made, mainly cut bets and H2Hs. These will be added to this post and Twitter later on.

We might try to add Rory / Scottie to the winner section later on, but at this point we take only few mid range +EV plays and lots of longshots that we put a half for a 10x lay bet of the bet unit amount.

Here is the card and preview of data for the week is in the Tools section.

*Shane Lowry - 50
Patrick Cantlay - 30
Patrick Reed - 110
Talor Gooch - 110
Byeong Hun An - 210
Thomas Pieters - 440
Emiliano Grillo - 510
Adam Schenk - 530
Romain Langasque - 1,000
Ben Griffin - 1,000
Takumi Kanaya - 1,000

Risking around 10 units for potential payout of around 100 units.

Note that we play with 300 unit bankroll and risk around 33% of it every week. Our lowest bet will always be 0.5 unit bet.
*means a in-play / not filled bet.
Top 10s:
Patrick Cantlay - 4.2
Rickie Fowler - 4.1
Shane Lowry - 5.9
Tony Finau - 6.8
Patrick Reed - 8.6
Talor Gooch - 8.6
Byeong Hun An - 11.4
Chris Kirk - 17
Jordan Smith - 18.5
Henrik Stenson - 21
Thomas Pieters - 18.5
Emiliano Grillo - 21.34
Adam Schenk - 24.00
Andrew Putnam - 27.00
Lee Hodges - 29
Romain Langasque - 38
Ben Griffin - 48
Richard Bland - 36.38
Takumi Kanaya - 38

Tyrrell Hatton - 4.2
Tommy Fleetwood - 4.2
Collin Morikawa - 5.4
Denny McCarthy - 15.5

1 unit for under 10/1 and 0.5 unit to all others.
Top 20s:
Tyrrell Hatton - 2.38
Rickie Fowler - 2.5
Shane Lowry - 3.1
Tony Finau - 3.35
Corey Conners - 4
Patrick Reed - 4.2
Denny McCarthy - 4.7
Ryan Fox - 4.8
Byeong Hun An - 4.8
Nicolai Hojgaard - 7.6
Gary Woodland - 5.5
Chris Kirk - 6.6
Henrik Stenson - 7.2
Thomas Pieters - 7.2
Emiliano Grillo - 7.6
Adam Schenk - 8.8
Andrew Putnam - 9
Romain Langasque - 10.5
Brendon Todd - 11
Ben Griffin - 14.5
Marcel Siem - 14
Richard Bland - 13
Zach Johnson - 27

In-play/not filled:
Tommy Fleetwood - 2.5
Collin Morikawa - 3
Talor Gooch - 4.6
Adam Schenk - 8.8
Richie Ramsay - 13.5

2 units for under 3/1 and 1 unit to all others except 0.5 units to over 10/1.

Note that there are quite a lot of these selections and many have really high odds which makes them sensical because of a lot of EV in them.

Winner and top bets are placed in Betfair Exchange. Sign up here.
Other bets will be shared in Twitter / Shorts section later on.

Good luck for the week!

Don't be in a bunker this week.