WM Phoenix Open 2023
Photo by Andrew Ling / Unsplash

WM Phoenix Open 2023

Preview of the WM Phoenix Open 2023 edition. Read our analysis, strategy and betting picks for the week.

Eagles have landed to Arizona and it's desert habitat. It's time for the biggest (attendance) tournament of the year. Elevated status and the electric atmosphere combined with great course has attracted the top talent in the field.

Having 18 players out of top 20 in the world in February's event feels too good to be true, but it's all happening in TPC Scottsdale's Stadium Course this week. It's the battle between world's best, the Monday qualified underdogs and true grinders (the middle of the pack) to get the biggest checks of the history in early season.

Rory and Jon are taking 20% of winners market, but this week they are facing a true challenge from the other top players. As I wrote earlier, there's more than enough previews in Internet and we'll change the approach closer to our identity which is data based & quantitive. We highly recommend reading the previews from Vincerix, Betsperts and some big bookmakers (Betfair and Sportinglife (powered by BetFred) if that's your cup of tea. These previews bring all the needed aspects for picking players and our approach is more quantified.

The betting card & reasoning

Last week was a successful regarding our main strategy although there was a lot of weather scares along the way. Still the mildly edited selection generated over 30% yield and the week was success even if you let the players in-play since Rose took the trophy with amazing showing of playing with win.

There were few really disappointing turns in the H2H and top20 selections when Maverick McNealy decided to focus on the Phoenix Open after weather delay and WD'd his way out to lose the bet against struggling Fitzpatrick. Top20s took some really unfortunate weather in and made few triple+ bogeys during the storm. Surprising results from that sector, but that's part of the journey. Results are easily tracked in the right part of the betting card every week by the way.

Onwards to this week with intriguing findings. For some reason early tee time on Thursday has been money for 2 round strategic bets. In addition top talent have risen to top in first 2 rounds in recent years yielding positive results every year. With combined strategy of early wave tee time and +2% market share before in-play this strategy has yielded double digit profits for past 4 years.

We don't see any reason for this strategy not coming through this week and thus we locked our selections early on for this selection of players. You can see these selections below. In addition we took some positions in the FRL-market and top5 after 1st round market. All players have early tee times, good amount of spike rounds (3+ strokes gained rounds) in recent history and good form + course fit.

UPDATE: Some selections for top 20 and +EV odds winners were added. In addition CUT bets were added with quite large selection (lowering the variance + lots of positive EV was offered by Bet365). These "new" selections are now in Shorts section, but will be tracked in their own row. The CUT bets are generated based on simulations (Adj. TSG model is used as base data) that give us our own odds. These are then compared to CUT odds to find value plays. Below you can see this weeks selections and these are easier accessible through this link.

Main plays for this week - more plays added before the start.

Best of luck this week and remember to be around for cashing those strategic plays after R2 or latest R3. Weekend selections are work in progress for now and those will be shared in the future.