Scottish Open 2023
Scottish gents smile even in the rain - by Midjourney.

Scottish Open 2023

Scottish Open 2023 - preview, picks and thoughts.

Our Scottish assistant wrote a brilliant preview of the course this week. We at the committee were all over the models and decided to keep the focus in best possible plays and picks so this week we'll hope to continue hitting the winners.

Congrats for the members who've send us winning tickets of Nick Taylor and Sepp Straka lately - some even managed to get huge price for Sepp after his poor first round.

Genesis Scottish Open at The Majestic Renaissance Club

Our grand old game of golf is poised to return to the splendid greens and fairways of The Renaissance Club, North Berwick, Scotland for the Genesis Scottish Open. Conjured into existence in 2008 by the esteemed architect, Tom Doak, the course is an intriguing blend of parkland, heathland and ocean links styles.

Stretched out over a generous 7,237 yards, this Par 70 course is woven through a stately forest of evergreens, occupying an undulating terrain sculpted on a base of ancient sand. With an interesting mix of only four ocean holes, accompanied by thick rough off the fairway and several wooded areas, the course breaks somewhat with the traditions of the standard links course.

Yet, the spirit of the Scottish seaside is never far away. The call of the gulls and the sea air remind players of the course's coastal location, where the wind can either be a gentle companion or a capricious foe. The firm and fast conditions, along with the deep, riveted-face pot bunkers, hark back to the quintessential links-style courses that Scotland is known for.

Weather, the perennially unpredictable actor on the Scottish golfing stage, has often played a defining role at The Renaissance Club. Historically, tranquil conditions in 2019 and 2021 had the course play at a comfortable average of 1.87 under par. However, the Scottish tempest, with its gusty winds and rains in 2020 and 2022, proved a game changer, making the course play at an average of 0.96 over par.

The game that's needed this week

The layout is a stern test with three long par-5s exceeding 575 yards, five challenging par-3s, and ten demanding par-4s, six of which stretch beyond 465 yards. The course is quite the proving ground for the big hitters and precise iron players. Success on this course demands more than distance - it also favours the cunning strategist who can play with the wind, and the careful putter who can navigate the undulating greens and avoid the dreaded 3-putts.

The sward here is a 100% red fescue, whether it be the challenging rough or the sweeping fairways, right down to the complex and large, slow-rolling greens. This uniformity brings its own particular challenges and rewards, making each shot a thoughtful consideration.

In sum, The Renaissance Club, with its harmonious fusion of various golfing styles, is set to offer a tantalising challenge at the Genesis Scottish Open. It is here, amidst the rugged beauty of Scotland's Golf Coast, where strategy, precision and the ability to harness the ever-changing elements, will dictate the fortunes of the competitors in the grand theatre of golf.

This week will be hard.

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Betting card and thoughts

Big boys are back this week and we place our trust to Scottie and longshots. He has (as the other picks) the better wave because of weather and his game should fit this course.

We sprinkled a lot of picks to top10 / top20 in-plays since there will be a lot of variance this week.

All plays are weighted toward the late wave of two first rounds because of pretty adverse weather.

Here is the card and preview of data for the week is in the Tools section.

*Xander Schauffele - 24
*Tyrrell Hatton - 25
Scottie Scheffler - 8.2
Wyndham Clark - 40
Aaron Rai - 100
Seamus Power - 200
Austin Eckroat - 300

Risking 18.5 units for potential payout of around 100 units. 5x is not the normal target for profit, but this week such as last week is far from normal.

Note that we play with 300 unit bankroll and risk around 33% of it every week. Our lowest bet will always be 0.5 unit bet.
*means a in-play / not filled bet.
Top 10s:
*Scottie Scheffler - 1.94
* Xander Schauffele - 3.1
* Rickie Fowler - 3.7
* Tommy Fleetwood - 3.8
* Shane Lowry - 5.5
* Wyndham Clark - 4.7
* Ludvig Aberg - 8
*Alex Smalley - 12
Doug Ghim - 18.5
Tommy Fleetwood - 3.8
Wyndham Clark - 4.7
Ryan Fox - 8.6
Aaron Rai - 8.8
Sahith Theegala - 11.5
Seamus Power - 12
Austin Eckroat - 15.5

2 units for under 4/1 and 1 unit to all others except 0.5 units to over 10/1. These have been performing quite well lately.
Top 20s (live and floating):
Xander Schauffele - 2
Tyrrell Hatton - 2.04
Ludvig Aberg - 3.6
Ryan Fox - 4.1
Seamus Power - 5.7
Doug Ghim - 7.4
J.T. Poston - 7.6
Kevin Yu - 9.8
Sami Valimaki - 15

In-play/not filled:
Patrick Cantlay - 2
Rickie Fowler - 2.3
Tommy Fleetwood - 2.4
Shane Lowry - 3
Wyndham Clark - 2.7
Adam Scott - 3.6
Robert MacIntyre - 5.9
Alex Smalley - 5.1
Alex Noren - 5.6
Sahith Theegala - 5.4
Alexander Bjork - 6.4

2 units for under 4/1 and 1 unit to all others except 0.5 units to over 10/1. These have been performing quite well lately.

Winner and top bets are placed in Betfair Exchange. Sign up here.

Good luck for the week!

Windy conditions