Farmers Insurance Open 2023
Photo by James McCullough / Unsplash

Farmers Insurance Open 2023

Preview of the Farmers Insurance Open 2023 edition. Read our analysis, strategy and betting picks for the week.

Birdie fest season is now over for at least a week, when PGA arrives at Torrey Pines with some winds and lower temperatures. The biggest reason for tougher times in the course is late US Open venue South Course which will feature really penalizing roughs.

Since there's more than enough previews in Internet we'll change the approach closer to our identity which is data based & quantitive. We highly recommend to read previews from Vincerix, Betsperts and some big bookmakers (Betfair and Sportinglife (powered by BetFred) if that's your cup of tea. These previews bring all the needed aspects for picking players and our approach is more quantified.

The betting card & reasoning

This week we found solid strategy to approach the competition and our focus is on strategic bets once again (last week those yielded over 30% with Rahm's dominance).

There's some picks included in the sheet and these are based on averages on four different models enriched with course history and players trend index (excellent dataset from Datagolf).

The main play is to get 30-40% of the top of the winners market and sell this at profit after R2 and at latest R3. It's up to risk taking profile to decide between top30% and top40% (former one included 4 players and latter 6 players).

Here's the betting card (which is now updated so that it shows all the results from previous weeks):

Strategic bets and H2H picks. 
Some longshot picks and top10 / top20 selections.

Tops and bottoms in model averages

Players to back.
Players to fade (RD means rank difference compared to market)

Enjoy the week and subscribe for upcoming insights and timely advice for taking an advantage of the lovely golf market.