The Players 2023
Photo by Sara Cottle / Unsplash

The Players 2023

Preview of the The Players 2023 edition. Read our analysis, strategy and betting picks for the week.

One of the stable tournaments is on this week with field full of talent. It kind of opens the Major season as a "5th major" and biggest prize pool in the PGA Tour Schedule.

Main strategy based on data is to short all players over 2% for first two days. It's a simple one and done strategy that would've been profitable for most of the years and averages over 20% yield. The market has seen this as odds have been falling a lot during the week which boasts a record turnover this year.

As previously mentioned market is full of good previews. We highly recommend reading the previews from Vincerix, Betsperts and some big bookmakers (Betfair and Sportinglife (powered by BetFred). These previews bring all the needed aspects for picking players and our approach is more quantified.

I'll add the main strategy picks just before the start, but there's also a lot of research done this week and the betting card features these right now. Still evaluating top10/top20 plays and it's model so we're going with "to miss cut" shorts, winner card and FRL + FR top 5's. For easier use I'll start to copy-paste the card below and update the larger card on a different page when it's ready.

Betting card

These plays were selected based on course adjusted 3 month true strokes gained, Datagolf's trend index and course history stats with some adjustments based on last 5 visits to TPC Sawgrass. I'd say these are experimental as you can see from unit sizes. Some shorts were added due to injury updates and really bad late form.

Winner SelectionsLocked OddsGBM OddsM OddsPosition (U)
Justin Thomas*30.0324.00
Jason Day38.0030.4434.004
Max Homa*35.6225.00
Tyrrell Hatton46.0050.1946.003.2
Keegan Bradley55.0057.0660.002.8
Keith Mitchell75.0058.1475.002
Si Woo Kim75.0066.6770.002.3
Corey Conners80.0067.2375.001.9
Tommy Fleetwood100.00144.40100.001.5
Adam Scott140.00147.06150.001.1
Rickie Fowler80.00160.6480.001.9
Jhonattan Vegas330.00193.24320.000.5
Davis Riley220.00310.08270.000.7
Ben Martin480.00588.24560.000.5
Nicolas Echavarria1000.001538.46 0.5
*Betting live/ after R1 if odds get better
Will sell long shots live, half @ 10x
ShortingLocked OddsGBM OddsPosition (U)
Jordan Spieth31.5
Sam Burns2.252
Hideki Matsuyama2.252
Brian Harman2.22.05
Justin Rose2.22.05
Billy Horschel2.12.15
Wydham Clark22.25
Gary Woodland22.25
All to miss cut
*injury rumours and bad form
FRL (1st round leader)Locked OddsGBM OddsM OddsPosition (U)
Corey Conners75.000.45
Adam Hadwin100.000.4
Keith Mitchell70.000.5
Justin Thomas48.000.85
Si Woo Kim80.00 0.5
Tommy Fleetwood80.00 0.5
Jhonattan Vegas130.00 0.3
FRL T5Locked OddsGBM OddsM OddsPosition (U)
Corey Conners17.00 0.7
Adam Hadwin21.00 0.6
Keith Mitchell15.00 0.8
Justin Thomas9.00 1.3
Si Woo Kim15.00 0.8
Tommy Fleetwood19.00 0.65
Jhonattan Vegas23.00 0.55

Have a great week!