Return of the big cat to the main stage.
Major level stage.
Major level field.
The Genesis Invitational promises a lot and should deliver. It's a place where you have to be strategic of the tee and need special skills from bunkers. There's excellent previews available from earlier recommended sources (Vincerix, Betsperts) and interesting angles from stats to look at this competition.
When you have a grouping of Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods, the attention is granted and deserved. It's kind of a dream grouping and there's many more stellar groups to follow.
Elevated event and traditional, well liked course attracts the top talent as it should and there's a lot of intriguing findings from data.
Before digging in, few words about last week.
It was a week to forget and all damage would've been controllable with more straight thinking. Having a near stromy gusts in Thursday morning with frost delay making players to wait almost 2 hours extra for their tee time in freezing weather should have pointed to cashout (with little loss). It ended up in a max. loss and there's a lot to learn. In the future these decision will be easier to make. We move on!
The betting card & reasoning
Week started with a line check of Tiger. Somebody had made money with shorting 500€ @ 50 odds. It now stands @ 140 which seems reasonable.
Betfair's exchange data and trends are the base layer of our strategic bets and we dug little deeper this week to find lower variance way to take advantage of market. Last week taught us something..
Cut lines we're locked early on based on predictions and +EV selections, these fared well last week although betting levels were foolishly put.
It might be scary to skip Rahm and Rory in 2 round main strategy but history tells us that on average they're losing market share in first 2 rounds. It's a different story for all selected players this week. There's weights in both last year's competitions and this competition's historic performance.
In top20 bets this week means return to old way of making 1 unit bets to all selections, which has worked for years. Some new strategies were tested in past months but those did not perform as well as expected.
Betting card below (remember to scroll down to see all bets):
Enjoy the show - hopefully we'll not stumble this week: