Fortinet Championship 2023
Greetings from Napa by Midjourney.

Fortinet Championship 2023

Fortinet Championship 2023. Here's our preview, stats analysis and betting picks.

The PGA Tour is back in action this week after a two week break, with the 17th edition of the Fortinet Championship teeing off on Thursday at the Silverado Resort and Spa in Napa Valley, California. With new faces emerging and old veterans looking to continue seasons of redemption, the Fortinet Championship shapes up as an exciting start to the PGA Tour's Fall season in renewed format.

Course Spotlight: Silverado (North)

Location: Napa Valley, California
Design: Originally by Robert Trent Jones Jr, with a significant renovation by Johnny Miller
Course Stats: Par 72, spanning 7,123 yards

Unique Features:

  • Tree-lined parkland setting
  • Narrow fairways, making it the 2nd narrowest in the circuit
  • Mix of grasses with non-penal rough
  • Greens characterized by sloping, run-off areas, and bumpy Poa

What Makes Fortinet Championship Special?

Diverse Playing Styles: Whether you're a bomber or a plodder, Silverado welcomes all playing styles.

Green Dynamics: Expect fast-paced action on the greens, with a stimpmeter reading of 11.5-12.

Hole Highlights:

  • Four reachable par-5s, all under 575 yards
  • No par-4s exceeding 458 yards

Based on history this is high variance setup which is understandable based on above.

Player Insights

Cam Champ, known for his aggressive style, confidently states:

"I don’t even care if I’m in the rough. I’ll take it being way up there and hitting driver."

This sentiment is echoed by Webb Simpson, who believes,

"The winners here are guys who tend to be really good drivers of the ball even though it's a short golf course."

A Glimpse into the Past

The Fortinet Championship, previously known as the Safeway Open and Open, has been a part of the golfing calendar since 2007. The North Course at Silverado Resort has been its home since 2014, making this the tenth consecutive year of hosting.

Legends like Johnny Miller, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, and Ben Crenshaw have all clinched victories at Silverado. The venue has also seen Champions Tour golf, with winners like Bernard Langer, Lee Trevino, Tom Kite, and Dave Stockton.

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Betting card and thoughts

Back to PGA Tour action and betting cards this week.

For a few weeks we've been focusing on top10s and top20s with moderate success and exciting findings from data. This means, that the winner market will be played with few +EV plays weekly and main focus will be in the topX markets.

For those wanting to track results - the update to tracking is coming up when Betfair sends the data I've been asking for few weeks..

Here is the card and preview of data for the week is in the Tools section. These players will be qualified for bets based on their model rank, positive other ranks and under 2 missed cuts on their last 5 starts. The odds mentioned are the ones that we either have hit or aim to hit during R1, otherwise those will be void bets.

Picking only few players with positive EV and betting lightly (1 unit each just to track the model).
  • Max Homa: 9.2
  • J.J. Spaun: 44
  • Luke List: 100
  • Robert Streb: 400
Aiming for 3 unit profit (payout-stake).
  • Max Homa: 2.2
  • Sahith Theegala: 3.3
  • Cam Davis: 3.8
  • Andrew Putnam: 5.5
  • Stephan Jaeger: 3.95
Top 20s:
Aiming for 3 unit profit (payout-stake).
  • Brendon Todd: 3.35
  • Davis Thompson: 3.65
  • Nick Hardy: 3.75
  • Alex Noren: 3.25
  • Sam Ryder: 4.5
  • Luke List: 4.4
  • Beau Hossler: 2.4
  • J.J. Spaun: 2.66
  • Alex Noren: 3.25
  • Doug Ghim: 3.75
  • Dylan Wu: 4.3

Winner and top bets are placed in Betfair Exchange. Sign up here.

We will be sharing our picks for other events in our Twitter - so for full coverage of pre-tournament bets and possible live adds, follow us there. Our handle is @golfbettingm.

Good luck for the week!

Let's roll!