BMW International 2023

BMW International, one of the few competitions held in Germany this year in DP's schedule. Here's our preview, stats analysis and betting picks.

Our British assintant did the legwork once again for this preview. Chairman's & committees thoughts about market and the betting card can be found below the preview. If you are looking for the model ranking - that can be found from Tools from this week on.

The Ultimate Test of Precision and Control

In the fascinating realm of golf, we always find ourselves drawn towards historical tournaments, endowed with grandeur and exciting competition. This week, we revisit Germany, where the majestic fairways of the Golfclub München Eichenried are all set to host the 34th edition of the BMW International Open.

The tournament's rich history dates back to 1989, but it is noteworthy that since 2011, the competition alternated its venue between the Golf Club Gut Lärchenhof and the Golfclub München Eichenried. However, this year, we mark a fourth consecutive return to Golfclub München Eichenried, the tournament's home between 1997 and 2011.

The course - easier and longer

Golfclub München Eichenried, located in Munich, Germany, features a par-72, 7,284-yard course. Over the years, the course's Stroke Index has been inching lower, sitting at 70.75 in 2022. Designed by Kurt Rossknecht and inaugurated in 1989, the course boasts an intricate layout filled with tree-lined fairways, and water hazards on ten of its holes. Initially, scoring here was low with players even breaching the 20-under-par mark. However, as the course matured and the trees grew denser, scoring has become slightly more challenging. Yet, it remains a low-scoring course, as evidenced by last year's play-off between Haotong Li and Thomas Pieters, with both posting an impressive -22.

Recent changes to the course include the modification of all greens and a lengthening of the course before the 2019 edition. While the extension did not drastically alter the winning scores, the course average dropped slightly to 70.75 in 2022.

Recent history

The list of recent winners is eclectic and represents both established champions and emerging stars. The tournament seems to favor players who can maintain precision off the tee rather than those boasting long drives. Both Haotong Li and Viktor Hovland, recent winners, showed excellent control with their drivers, indicating a shift in course demands.

Delving into the stats, accuracy off the tee seems to offer an edge, although it's not essential to keep it straight off the tee for every hole, as demonstrated by Li Haotong's performance in 2022. Similarly, while previous winners ranked high in Greens In Regulation, it isn't a definitive measure of success. Putting, however, has emerged as a vital metric, with the first four finishers of the last year's edition ranking among the top ten for Putting Average.

Past champions have come from both top form and unexpected ranks. For instance, Andrea Pavan and Andres Romero won despite not being in the best of form before their respective victories. Moreover, the course seems to favor players familiar with its layout, though the last two winners, Haotong Li and Viktor Hovland, defied this trend with victories on their debuts.

An interesting aspect of the BMW International Open is that leading the field in the final round doesn't guarantee a win. Late comebacks are common here, as shown by Andres Romero's stunning final round in 2017, with seven birdies in his last 11 holes. Even players outside the top eight after three rounds have surged to clinch the trophy.

All in all, the BMW International Open is a test of precision, control, and adaptability. Course knowledge could provide an edge, but as recent history shows, newcomers can shake up the leaderboard. So, as we approach this year's competition, remember that golf is an unpredictable game, and at the BMW International Open, any player could end up hoisting the trophy when the final putt drops.

Chairman's note: Thanks for your hard work this week our British assistants

Betting card and thoughts

As in PGA Tour this week, our strategy is to do rather wide card with loads of (possible) top20s, top10s and several longshot winners. As we've done successfully last weeks, this week we'll let some selections float for the first or even second round to get the correct price. If you are able to watch live, you can have even longer odds on some occasions.

After horrendous run on DPWT, we cut the betting to about half from the past as we test new type of model to DPWT.

To see our picks and model - sign in / get your "Green Jacket" as we like to say. We do not spam and work hard to bring well thought selections every week.

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Here is the card and preview of data for the week is in the Tools section.

Winners :
Pablo Larrazabal - 36
Takumi Kanaya - 40
Jorge Campillo - 46
Fabrizio Zanotti - 130
Romain Langasque - 36
Jorge Campillo - 46
Joost Luiten - 50
Marcel Siem - 65
Matthew Southgate - 85
Aaron Cockerill - 100
Kristian Krogh Johannessen - 180

Aiming for 5x the units with these selections and few will be floating.
Top 10s (live and floating):
Pablo Larrazabal - 5.2
Romain Langasque - 4.6
Jorge Campillo - 5.8
Niklas Norgaard - 5.2
Joost Luiten - 5.7
Matthew Southgate - 7.6
Takumi Kanaya - 4.4
Romain Langasque - 4.6
Joost Luiten - 5.7
Marcel Siem - 6.6
Matthew Southgate - 7.6
Jonas Baumgartner - 24

3 units to 0.5 units depending on odds.

Winner and top bets are placed in Betfair Exchange. Sign up here.

Good luck for the week!